Succinct list of AI predictions (concise, grammar sacrificed)
- stay on the "meter line" for capability growth, NVIDIA Blackwell/Hopper keep trajectory
- more models released more frequently, avoid single-big-release risk
- model choice increasingly "vibe"-based for writing/research; users pick based on style
- multimodal competition heats up (images/video)
- emphasis on productization/interface around models (UX matters)
- "Notebook LM" style studios for building agents (simple agent-building interfaces)
- coding focus ratchets up; coding is massive use case for labs
- last-mile end-user data becomes very valuable; agent labs vs model labs battle
- memory improvements lock users in; memory a key competitive focus
- world models get demos and early sandboxes but not generalist usable by end of 2026
- assistants vs agents blur; 2026 likely "agent managers" proliferation not full autonomy
- vibe coding bifurcates: engineering vibe coding vs non-developer vibe coding
- engineering orgs reorganize to manage AI/autonomy
- vibe coding moves from prototypes into production in non-tech enterprise areas (legal, HR, marketing)
- bespoke personal/ephemeral software grows; people build tailored tools
- new class of AI app entrepreneurs from personal apps turned products
- template-based website builders decline as natural-language site building wins
- Shopify plays important role helping non-tech creators adopt AI
- "knowledge work vibification": shift from doing to managing across knowledge work
- new vibe-coding roles (forward-deployed vibers) hired inside companies
- SMBs build replacement internal software (replace heavy SaaS) while big enterprises less likely
- 2026 = year of ROI dashboards; heavy focus on quantitative benchmarking
- surge in investment/focus on data & context engineering for agents
- enterprise interfaces must improve for agent adoption; Zapier-style won't mainstream agents
- process reinvention (agents enable new processes, not copy humans) squeezes classic automation
- AI compounding: leaders pull farther ahead, AI usage creates new products/revenue